Red Bulls look to cool Fire, improve playoff position

Soccer Betting Lines

09/14/2007 - Bridgeview, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Red Bull New York and the Chicago Fire square off for the third and final time this season in a Major League Soccer fixture Saturday at Toyota Park.

The teams just played each other on Sept. 1 - a 1-0 New York win at Giants Stadium - so there should be little mystery involved with this game.

The Fire will probably pack it in, in an effort to limit the Red Bulls chances while using its talented trio of attackers - Chris Rolfe, Cuauhtemoc Blanco and Paulo Wanchope - in a counter-attacking role and on set pieces.

"Their focus as a group is they establish a block of players that are very hard to break down," New York coach Bruce Arena said. "They have seven or eight players behind the ball which makes it hard to play against them. It's no secret that the games they play are generally 1-0. I think there is a reason for that. I think they do a pretty good job of trying to keep Wanchope, Blanco and Rolfe up high and try and bring defenders. They try to take advantage of the opportunities they get the run of play on the counter attack. They can be very offensive at times, they have the ability to go forward with such fine players as Wanchope, Blanco and Rolfe."

That strategy has worked well in recent games for the Fire, who have crept into the eighth and final playoff spot with seven games remaining since the addition of Blanco, among others.

"They have been able to bring in a number of players, specifically Blanco, Wanchope and now with the addition of (defender) Wilman Conde," Arena said. "I think they are very good players. Over the last five or six games they have gotten a number of points and some good results. I think they are a good team."

The Red Bulls needed a Juan Pablo Angel goal on one of their only chances in the game to earn the victory over the Fire in their last meeting. That victory has helped New York stay in a strong position to make the playoffs. It is currently in the sixth position, four points up on Chicago.

"It is extremely disappointing that at the end we limited Juan (Pablo Angel) to one chance and it was a goal and we also limited (Dane) Richards to one cross the whole game," Chicago coach Juan Carlos Osorio said after the New York loss. "They didn't have many goal scoring opportunities so it was disappointing. We know that we can play better offensively and we need to create more chances and just keep working. Hopefully, when we play them back at our place, it will be a different game."

The teams are coming off opposite results in their most recent fixtures, with New York being dominated 3-0 at CD Chivas USA and the Fire earning a 1-0 victory at Columbus, thanks to a goal by Wanchope.

"All week we worked very hard on the tactical side of things because we knew that today could be the decisive moment for us," Osorio said. "I think it worked well for us today. We limited a very good team going forward to few chances and we waited patiently for our chance and when it came our way, Paulo [Wanchope] put it in very well."

"It was one of those games," Arena said of the Chivas loss. "I guess we obviously shot ourselves on the foot. Give them credit, they capitalized on the mistakes we made, they won the game. I think we actually played pretty well in spurts and it was a very lopsided score given the quality of play. I think we created most of the chances in the game and made some individual mistakes that resulted in goals."

The Red Bulls will look to rebound Saturday, and could welcome back injured striker Jozy Altidore, who has been out since before the last Chicago fixture with what the team is calling "a lower left leg injury."

"He is day-to-day. We haven't made any decision on him at this time," Arena said Thursday.

The New York midfield could also see a shakeup. Dema Kovalenko, one of the better two-way players on the team, has seen limited action this season with injuries and after a recent car accident, but should be fit to see extended minutes Saturday.

"We haven't decided on a lineup for the game, but Dema could play more than he did in the last game," Arena said.

Also, midfielder Clint Mathis, who is third on the team in scoring behind Angel and Altidore, could miss the game because of personal reasons.

"(He's) day-to-day with personal reasons. I'm not going to get into it, it is a family thing," Arena added.

The Fire will be without midfielder Justin Mapp with an ankle injury while midfielders Chris Armas and Ivan Guerrero should play even though they are nursing injuries.

After Saturday's fixture, New York hosts Eastern rival New England next Saturday while Chicago travels to Dallas on Thursday.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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